Trekking through the markets
Pharma & IT shares surged sharply, financial underperformed
Global market performance last week While Pharma (9%), IT (6.4%), Small cap (6%) were massive gainers, Nifty ended the week with modest 0.4% gains. The level of activity – market breadth, volumes, and number of trades etc – was high. Volatility eased further. Metals and financials were major underperformers. Realty and Auto were other notable outperformers. INR weakened marginally. Benchmark yields were also marginally lower.
Global markets cautious, commodities perk up
Global equities turned cautious post Fed statement. USD weakness, acceleration in number of fresh Covid-19 cases and Chinese belligerence underwhelmed the vaccine enthusiasm. Chinese equities outperformed majorly. Crude and Copper also gained materially. Bonds sold off. Volatility was tad lower.
Outlook for the week
The outlook and trend for Indian equities remains unchanged from the previous week. The outlook and trend now is neutral for near (daily), short (weekly) and midterm (monthly), implying balanced risk reward for traders. The near term momentum has slowed marginally, indicating slightly lower probability for change in the market outlook and trend. For this week-
· The day traders may avoid trading in 11327-11513 nifty range. The long positions may be held with a stop loss of 11142. Outstanding short positions may be held only with a strict stop loss of 11642.
· Bank Nifty outlook and trend has turned negative for short term (weekly). Fresh long must be avoided. All short position may be held with a stop loss of 22695. Day Trading may be avoided in 21915-22670 range. For all long position maintain a strict stop loss of 21888. A close below 21915 anytime in next two weeks could trigger a midterm (9-15 months) down move in Bank Nifty.
Market trend and outlook
Indian markets last week
Global market performance last week